Friday, February 26, 2010
Low 17P Has a Good Chance for Tropical Reformation This WeekendThe Joint Typhoon Warning Center is the forecast center that issues advisories for tropical cyclones in the Southern Pacific Ocean, and they noted on February 26, "Available data does not justify issuance of numbered tropical cyclone warnings at this time" That may change over the weekend, as maximum sustained winds are near tropical depression strength, 34 mph (30 knots) and environmental factors are looking more favorably for further development.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Tropical cyclone 17P may be a low pressure area right now, but environmental conditions have become more favorable to give it a likely comeback as a tropical storm. Forecasters are using satellite imagery and observing various factors to see if 17P may be reborn.Wednesday, February 24, 2010
17P low on Feb. 24 at 0709 UTC (2:09 a.m. ET). The rainfall was scattered around the low’s center. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The small red area indicates heavy rainfall at almost 2 inches per hour.Monday, February 22, 2010
Friday, February 19, 2010
Gelane on February 19 at 09:45 UTC (4:45 a.m. ET) that clearly showed the eye of this Category 4 cyclone.
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Tropical Cyclone 16S was a tropical storm yesterday, and today the storm is at Category Two Cyclone (hurricane) strength.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
Tropical Storm 16S on February 15 at 5:05 a.m. ET (1005 UTC) when it was still coming together and noticed that some strong convection (purple) was flaring up in its center.Tropical Cyclone 16S has already powered up into a tropical storm, and is headed in the direction of Port Louis and Reunion Island in the next couple of days.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Cyclone Rene Slams Tonga, Moves Into Open Waters
Friday, February 12, 2010
SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Tropical cyclone Rene / 15P
Fiji designation 10F
Warning 07 from JTWC for 2100 GMT
The jump in warning number from 04 to 07 between 1500 and 2100 GMT has been noted
Position 14.3S 168.6W
Location 115 miles E of Pago Pago
Movement 245° (WSW) at 13 knots
Maximum sustained windspeeds 60 knots gusting to 75 knots
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 60 to 65 miles of the centre
Comparative strength Tropical storm
Maximum significant waveheight 23 feet
Threatened landmasses American Samoa, New Zealand
Next update from JTWC at 0900 GMT
Environmental conditions will deteriorate after the weekend, prompting a weakening trend. The storm is now forecast to move on a more southerly course later in the forecast period. Whether Rene will actually impact New Zealand as a tropical system is as yet beyond the forecast’s scope.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
MINIMAL STORM STAGE (LEVEL 4/15)
CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 40kt GUST: 50kt (74-93kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 993MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 42KT (78KPH) MSLP: 1000.1MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 41KT (76KPH) MSLP: 1002.0MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -78.06C (CENTER)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -71.68C (+50MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 55KT/102KPH/LEVEL 6
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT (14P)
CATEGORY 2 STAGE (LEVEL 8/15)
CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 75kt GUST: 90kt (139-167kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 967MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 79KT (146KPH) MSLP: 979.1MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 61KT (113KPH) MSLP: 991.8MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -57.66C (SMALL EYE)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -63.71C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 80KT/148KPH/LEVEL 8
Tuesday, February 09, 2010
STRONG STAGE (LEVEL 5/15)
CURRENT INTENSITY: MAX: 45kt GUST: 55kt (83-102kph)
CURRENT PRESSURE: 993MB
SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS: 38KT (70KPH) MSLP: 1002.9MB
ADVANCE DVORAK TECHNIQUES (ADT): 47KT (87KPH) MSLP: 989.6MB
CENTRAL REGION TEMP: -38.7C (CENTER)
CENTRAL CLOUD TEMP: -46.2C (+35MM/HR)
FORECAST 12HRS: 50KT/93KPH/LEVEL 5-6
Thursday, February 04, 2010
Fami on Feb. 3 at 09:35 UTC (4:35 a.m. ET), and showed the system more resembling a cold front than a tropical cyclone, as it appears stretched out from northwest to southeast. There are also very few strong thunderstorms left in what was once the center. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued their last advisory on the system at 1 p.m. ET on February 2 after it crossed Madagascar, and entered the Southern Indian Ocean. At that time it was located approximately 150 nautical miles southwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar, near 21.0 South and 45.5 East. It had maximum sustained wind near 34 mph, but was rapidly fading. Fami tracked eastward at 11 mph (10 knots) into open waters.
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
February 1 at 2231 UTC (5:31 p.m ET) as it was approaching landfall in Madagascar. Heavy rain was falling from high thunderstorm cloud tops that were as cold as minus 63F.
image reveals that once Fami made landfall, the storm was developing an eye (blue) in the upper levels of the storm.
Monday, February 01, 2010
GOES-11 captured an infrared look at Oli’s clouds on Feb.1 at 1652 UTC (11: 52 a.m. ET). The storm appears to be well-defined.
The twelfth tropical cyclone in the Southern Pacific Ocean has formed today, February 1, 2010, and because of its proximity to the Fiji islands, it has been dubbed “Oli.” The GOES-11 satellite passed over Oli early this morning and captured an infrared image of the storm’s clouds.
GOES-11, or the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite, is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and provides visible and infrared satellite imagery. Some of the imagery is created through the NASA GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. GOES-11 flew over Oli at 11:52 a.m. ET today, February 1, and noticed a well-organized tropical storm.
Oli’s name may also be referred to as Tropical Cyclone 12P in the news. The Fiji islands have their own list of tropical cyclone names, which may be confusing, because the Joint Typhoon Warning Center will typically use the number of the storm. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is currently referring to Oli as “12P” for the twelfth tropical cyclone in the Southern Pacific Ocean.
At 10 a.m. ET, February 1, Tropical Storm Oli (12P) had maximum sustained winds near 57 mph (50 knots) up from 40 mph from 12 hours ago. Oli is moving east at 23 mph (20 knots). It was located about 540 nautical miles north-northwest of Rarotonga, near 13.5 degrees South and 162.9 degrees West.
