Current Weather Situation latest forecast cyclone reports, and hurricane,flood images.

ATLANTIC

* A tropical wave moving west-northwestward into the Bay of Campeche is bringing disorganized but locally heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Yucatan Peninsula, southeast Mexico, and parts of Central America.

* This system could organize some on Tuesday or Wednesday as it moves through the Bay of Campeche and the shearing winds aloft relax, but may only at best become a tropical depression.

* Any developing tropical low and associated heavy rainfall will quickly move into northeast Mexico midweek and beyond.

* Southernmost Texas could see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity.

This blog presents a data-rich view of climate and a discussion of how that data fits together into the scientists' current picture of our changing climate. But there's a great deal that we don't know about the future of Earth's climate and how climate change will affect humans.

Climate scientists often discuss "abrupt climate change," which includes the possibility of "tipping points" in the Earth's climate. Climate appears to have several states in which it is relatively stable over long periods of time. But when climate moves between those states, it can do so quickly (geologically speaking), in hundreds of years and even, in a handful of cases, in only a few decades. These rapid 'state changes' are what scientists mean by abrupt climate change. They are much more common at regional scales than at the global scale, but can be global. State changes have triggers, or tipping points. In what's probably the single largest uncertainty in climate science, scientists don't have much confidence that they know what those triggers are.

Below is an explanation of just a few other important uncertainties about climate change. This list isn't exhaustive. It is intended to illustrate the kinds of questions that scientists still ask about climate.

1. Solar Irradiance.

The sun has a well-known 11-year irradiance cycle that produces about .1% variation in output.1 Solar irradiance has been measured by satellite daily since the late 1970s, and this known solar cycle is incorporated into climate models. There is some evidence from proxy measurements-sunspot counts going back centuries, measurements from ancient trees, and others-that solar output varies over longer periods of time, too. While there is currently no evidence of a trend in solar output over the past half century, because there are no direct observations of solar output prior to the 1970s, climate scientists do not have much confidence that they understand longer-term solar changes. A number of U.S. and international spacecraft study the sun.

2. Aerosols, dust, smoke, and soot.

At least six people were killed and many were injured by tornados at Oklahoma and Kansas City that began last Tuesday which forced offices and schools to close early. Residents should take tornado warnings and reports very seriously said Mary Fallin Governor of Oklahoma. NWS warned during the storm that it’s an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.

The citizens of Oklahoma City knew that the tornadoes were coming. About 1,200 people were packed in a shelter in Newcastle, a community near Oklahoma City, during the storm, said Oklahoma City Manager Nick Nazar. The city has been struck by more tornadoes than any other city in the United States. People were expecting for the worst to happen after the disastrous twister outbreak in the South that had a death toll of more than 300 people and last Sunday’s storm that left 122 people dead in Joplin.

The Oklahoma tornadoes were weaker than the other tornadoes but up-to-the-minute reporting of the developing weather system kept the people informed of the danger. Television networks had their helicopters broadcast live footages when the storm approached the city with a population of 1.2 million.

Weather Services Forecasters issued their forecast for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season which begins June 1, leaving an expectation of 15 tropical storms, with eight evolving into hurricanes. Of those, four are expected to strengthen into major hurricane of Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which mean the storm packs sustained winds of 111-130 mph and is expected to cause serious damage.

Each of the forecasts exceeds what is considered the historical average hurricane season, although what is defined as “average” varies somewhat according to the source. Predictions for 2011 do fall within the level of activity that has occurred during an active tropical period that began in 1995, says Crawford. Since 1995 the season has averaged 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four intense hurricanes. The 2010 season, one of the most active in recent decades, brought 19 tropical storms. Twelve of those became hurricanes and five grew into major hurricanes.

The reports said atleast 12 people were killed when tornadoes struck the south-western states of Oklahoma and Arkansas overnight Wednesday. Several tornadoes struck during rush hour on Tuesday, killing at least eight people in Oklahoma, two in Kansas and three more in Arkansas.

The National Weather Service said that the tornado 'destroyed the full town' of Denning, Arkansas, which has a population of 270 and is about 160 miles south of Joplin. Rescue crews began the frantic search for the missing on Wednesday, which included a three-year-old boy, after a tornado destroyed his home in Piedmont, northwest of Oklahoma City, injuring his mother and siblings.

The high-powered storms arrived just two days after a massive tornado tore through the southwest Missouri town of Joplin and killed 122 people. The other fatalities were reported in the neighboring state of Arkansas. The newest deaths came as meanwhile the death toll from the massive killer tornado in Joplin, Missouri rose to 125, according to the television news network CNN. Hundreds of people in the city were still missing.

The recent unexpected showers last week provided relief to the residents in the city, bringing down the temperature. A pool of rain water was seen in different areas of the city and heavy shower had brought smiles to Chennai people. The smiles got wider when the weatherman forecast more rain for the city, but now it seems not to be.

Other than seasonal rain, it is very hard to predict summer showers. The factors that conclude rains now are very lively. But now, we cannot anticipate any rain, reports by an official of the Meteorological Department. If so, Chennai may have to lay up with this hot weather till at least June. The westerly winds now raise the temperature on land, whereas the southerly winds bring in moisture from the ocean and also have a cooling effect. Only an unstable atmosphere with high moisture content will lead to formation of thunder clouds which will in turn cause rain. But that doesn't seem to be happening, said Meteorological officials.

The maximum temperature at Meenambakkam is expected to be 39.4 degrees Celsius, while the minimum will be around 27 degrees. The Maximum temperature at Nungambakkam is expected to be 38.6 degrees Celsius and minimum 27.7 degrees. The local forecast: Partly cloudy sky with a maximum temperature of 39 degrees Celsius with the relative humidity of around 80%.

The most recent tally showed that Aere affected 71,267 families, 65 municipalities, five cities, and 12 provinces in six regions nationwide. A disaster official saying Tropical Storm Aere left northern Luzon on Wednesday, but not earlier battering the Bicol region and leaving at least 26 people dead.

Officer in charge of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council saying most of the newly listed victims came from central Philippines and Metro Manila which Aere drenched and hit with rough winds from Monday to Tuesday. Displaced were 13,721 families but only 2,913 families were placed in 86 government-run evacuation centres and the rest who are not affected by Aere are staying in relative’s house and 2,7,243 hectares of rice, corn, and livestock are also affected. Total loss in agricultural products rose to P117.8 million. According to the Philippine weather bureau the storm was heading towards Japanese waters but had weakened after hitting the Philippines. It was the second storm to hit the Philippines this summer. Hundreds of people die each year due to the storms, with many of the victims living in poor, coastal communities.